The Numbers So Far: Top Domestic Movies of 2013

With the first three months of 2013's box office in the can, how does it match up to 2012?  Read on to find out!

As the first quarter of 2013 draws to a close, we've been keeping a watchful eye on what's turned into one of the worst for the film industry since 2008.  Even though Hollywood in 2012 churned out some of the best films in recent memory, such as Lincoln, Argo, and Avengers, a big question was already developing that took three months to answer.  In a year that ended with nothing less than Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit, and Django Unchained, would audiences return en masse in early 2013?  The answer wasn't fully clear until March, leading us to report that profits in February were down as much as 24%, with many wondering if this month could turn things around.  So, did how did Hollywood fare in the first quarter?  In a word: dismally. 

According to our friends at BoxOfficeMojo, Hollywood reportedly made $2.123 billion through March 30 - down 14% from the same month last year - which represents the second-lowest first-quarter since 2008.  Had it not been for the success of Oz The Great and Powerful leading the charge at $186 million domestically - and representing 20% of the total profits of the top 10 so far - we could have been talking about a much steeper decline.

But these numbers only tell half the story.  Check out the top performers so far and notice the trend:

1. Oz The Great and Powerful $186,672,400 

2. Identity Thief $128,817,890 

3. Silver Linings Playbook $99,352,650 

4. Zero Dark Thirty $94,172,217 

5. Django Unchained $93,537,202 

6. Les Miserables (2012) $75,753,685 

7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $74,210,420 

8. Mama $71,514,415 

9. Safe Haven $69,423,682 

10. A Good Day to Die Hard $66,393,000 

Looking at the above, we notice that 5 of these films were actually released in 2012, not 2013.  The problem becomes more pronounced when we use the same standards for 2012 (just one movie left over from 2011) and 2011 (only three 2010 leftovers).  Things get downright depressing when you also compare Top 10 profits in March 2011 ($599 million) and 2012 ($1.077 billion) to March 2013 (approximately $440 million).  In our opinion, all of this sends a very clear message: moviegoers are so far unimpressed with this year's new releases, opting to spend their money on proven Oscar worthy fare, rather than taking their chances on unknown or unimpressive offerings.    

True, Identity Thief and Oz did pull in terrific profits, but a number of highly-publicized and good releases did not go far enough, including Gangster Squad,  , Beautiful Creatures, and Broken City, each of which failed to draw audiences beyond a couple of weeks.  Hollywood depends on these first-out films to keep people coming back after the holidays and to provide a transition to the peak season of May-Labor Day, which also saw deterioration in 2012.  

So, where do all these numbers leave us?  With April offering only one big release in the Tom Cruise Sci-Fi Oblivion, there doesn't seem to be any serious short-term challenge at reversing these losses.  If Oblivion fails to impress at the box office, something we think could happen, Hollywood's loss sheet could go critical, especially when one considers the industry is down a staggering 62% (adding together individual monthly losses) from 2012.  The already-maligned G.I. Joe: Retaliation may not have the legs for a solid run through April, and is already behind the pace of 2009's Rise of Cobra.

The news does get slightly better if you take out 2012 altogether and compare 2013 to 2011 - profits are actually up 4.8%.  But in a year without an Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, or Skyfall (all of which made $2 billion domestically), theaters across America could see many more empty seats before Iron Man 3 arrives on May 3rd.  Is Hollywood's dilemma just a fad or a trend?  Will the trend be reversed in the second quarter? Comment below and join the discussion!

Author Matt Cummings is a Film and Blu-ray Critic for SandwichJohnFilms, HiDefNinja, and OnePerCase.  Follow him on Twitter at @mfc90125.